Global supply sustainability assessment of critical metals for clean energy technology

Abstract

The enduring challenges posed by the supply sustainability of critical metals have long served as a barrier to the low carbon energy transition and the regulation of global climate issues. This study aims to determine whether the supply of essential minerals can keep pace with the global demand associated with the shift towards low-carbon energy sources. In this study, critical metal minerals required by clean energy technology are taken as the research object, the supply and demand background of critical minerals are sorted and compared. By utilizing the genetic algorithm support vector regression (GA-SVR) predictive model, the research scrutinized the supply trends and developed twelve different supply and demand schemes under various development scenarios. These facilitated the assessment of the future supply sustainability of critical metals for clean energy technology. Results demonstrate that under a basic scenario, the global supply of lithium, cobalt, and nickel is projected to reach 200,000 tons, 300,000 tons, and 4 million tons, respectively, by 2030. Under a high supply scenario, these figures rise to 350,000 tons, 500,000 tons, and 5 million tons. From a global supply trend perspective, lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources are projected to grow by 2–4, 1–3, and 1.6–2 times, respectively. Examining supply and demand, the highest risk of supply shortages lies with lithium resources, followed by cobalt. Meanwhile, nickel faces no imminent risk of supply shortage. By 2030, if the compound annual growth rate of global demand for lithium and cobalt hits 15%, supply sustainability will reach a critical juncture, leading to a supply deficit. Lithium resources may encounter this critical demand growth rate even earlier. Although the supply risks for cobalt and nickel currently appear minimal, questions around the long-term availability and sustainability of these resources persist. Ensuring the sustainable supply of these resources necessitates a well-structured and efficient system for recycling secondary resources, technological advancements in the mining industry, and improvements in material strength.