Abstract
Abstract. We estimate the global risk from the release and atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides from nuclear power plant accidents using the EMAC atmospheric chemistry–general circulation model. We included all nuclear reactors that are currently operational, under construction and planned or proposed. We implemented constant continuous emissions from each location in the model and simulated atmospheric transport and removal via dry and wet deposition processes over 20 years (2010–2030), driven by boundary conditions based on the IPCC A2 future emissions scenario. We present global overall and seasonal risk maps for potential surface layer concentrations and ground deposition of radionuclides, and estimate potential doses to humans from inhalation and ground-deposition exposures to radionuclides. We find that the risk of harmful doses due to inhalation is typically highest in the Northern Hemisphere during boreal winter, due to relatively shallow boundary layer development and limited mixing. Based on the continued operation of the current nuclear power plants, we calculate that the risk of radioactive contamination to the citizens of the USA will remain to be highest worldwide, followed by India and France. By including stations under construction and those that are planned and proposed, our results suggest that the risk will become highest in China, followed by India and the USA.
Highlights
A nuclear accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a radiation release event that leads to significant consequences for people, the environment or the nuclear facility where it occurs
We focus on the radionuclides that are emitted as gases and partly attached to ambient aerosol particles: the semi-volatile isotopes of iodine 131I and caesium 137Cs
It can be assumed that food intervention measures will prevent significant doses to the population due to the ingestion of radionuclides (IAEA, 2009, Appendix I), and internal dosages from ingestion are not included in our calculations
Summary
A nuclear accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as a radiation release event that leads to significant consequences for people, the environment or the nuclear facility where it occurs. Arnold et al (2012, flexRISK) assessed the regional geographical distribution of the risk due to severe accidents at nuclear facilities, focussing on nuclear power plants (NPP) in Europe They take into account source terms and accident frequencies to simulate the large-scale dispersion of radionuclides in the atmosphere for 88 nuclear sites through a total of about 2800 meteorological conditions over a 10-year period (2000–2009) using the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART (Stohl et al, 1998), driven by operational meteorological data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at 0.75◦ (∼ 75 km) resolution. The dose from air-submersion is many times lower than the dose from inhalation
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