Abstract
In an era when global biodiversity is increasingly impacted by rapidly changing climate, efforts to conserve global biodiversity may be compromised if we do not consider the uneven distribution of climate-induced threats. Here, via a novel application of an aggregate Regional Climate Change Index (RCCI) that combines changes in mean annual temperature and precipitation with changes in their interannual variability, we assess multi-dimensional climate changes across the “Global 200” ecoregions – a set of priority ecoregions designed to “achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems” – over the 21st century. Using an ensemble of 62 climate scenarios, our analyses show that, between 1991–2010 and 2081–2100, 96% of the ecoregions considered will be likely (more than 66% probability) to face moderate-to-pronounced climate changes, when compared to the magnitudes of change during the past five decades. Ecoregions at high northern latitudes are projected to experience most pronounced climate change, followed by those in the Mediterranean Basin, Amazon Basin, East Africa, and South Asia. Relatively modest RCCI signals are expected over ecoregions in Northwest South America, West Africa, and Southeast Asia, yet with considerable uncertainties. Although not indicative of climate-change impacts per se, the RCCI-based assessment can help policy-makers gain a quantitative and comprehensive overview of the unevenly distributed climate risks across the G200 ecoregions. Whether due to significant climate change signals or large uncertainties, the ecoregions highlighted in the assessment deserve special attention in more detailed impact assessments to inform effective conservation strategies under future climate change.
Highlights
The rapidly changing climate has significantly impacted global biodiversity during recent decades [1], and is likely to play an increasing role in biodiversity loss over the longer term [2]
Future warming trends are projected to be stronger in dry seasons than in wet seasons (Figure S2B, C)
The likelihood of precipitation increase is high in ecoregions at high northern latitudes, East Africa, and South Asia, while precipitation decline is expected in ecoregions of the Mediterranean Basin, Central America, the Andes, South Africa, Madagascar, and Australia, during dry seasons
Summary
The rapidly changing climate has significantly impacted global biodiversity during recent decades [1], and is likely to play an increasing role in biodiversity loss over the longer term [2]. Beaumont et al (2011) [14] evaluated future climate change exposure of the ‘‘Global 200’’ ecoregions - a set of priority ecoregions designed to ‘‘achieve the goal of saving a broad diversity of the Earth’s ecosystems’’ [16] - during the 21st century Their findings suggested that tropical and subtropical ecoregions might be vulnerable to future climate change, given that ecoregions at lower latitudes will be more likely to face ‘‘extreme’’ local temperatures compared to those at higher latitudes [14]. Their evaluation was based on shifts in individual climatic factors (monthly mean temperature or precipitation), and did not incorporate changes in climate variability
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