Global patterns of regime change 1800–2015

Abstract

ABSTRACTThe aim of the present study is to provide an answer to the question of whether certain authoritarian regimes are more stable than others. Whereas previous studies regarding autocratic regime stability have covered, at most, the period after the Second World War, the present study extends over the period 1800–2015. Results indicate that personalist and military regimes are the most fragile authoritarian regime types, whereas absolute monarchy is the most stable one. Single-party systems, too, are stable, but the stability of the single-party system is largely confined to the Cold War era. Regarding prospects for democratic transformations, results show that personalist, military and multi-party authoritarian regimes are more likely than other regime types to transform into a democratic regime. In a similar vein, findings indicate that when democracies experience a breakdown, the ensuing regime type is most likely a military or a personalist regime. Overall, patterns of regime transformations are strongly affected by the time period under study.