Global patterns in urban green space are strongly linked to human development and population density

Abstract

Urban green space is important for alleviating high temperatures, pollution, and flooding in cities. Furthermore, it is becoming increasingly clear that urban green space is important for the mental and physical health of humans residing in cities and that urban green space may harbor unique biodiversity. Understanding the extent and drivers of urban green space is thus important. While urban green space has been mapped and studied at local to national scales, the global patterns and drivers of urban green space remain unknown, potentially hampering effective planning and allocation of resources toward reaching sustainable development goals. Here, we quantified the effect of environmental and socio-economic drivers (temperature, precipitation, human development, and population density) on urban green space globally by focusing on national capital cities. We used satellite imagery to map urban green space using two measures: the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and the fractional cover of “green” land cover classes. NDVI is useful as it includes all vegetated surfaces, also small ones like gardens. However, land cover classes allow the exclusion of certain classes such as sports fields or cropland. We used boosted regression trees to show that climatic variables accounted for 75 % of the relative influence in urban green space, with a positive effect of precipitation and a negative effect of temperature. Importantly, socioeconomic variables accounted for 25 % of the influence on global urban green space, with a positive effect of human development index (HDI) and a negative effect of population density. HDI in relation to urban green space has not previously been tested globally, and our study shows that significantly affects urban greenspace. The results demonstrate that cities where development status is low and population densities are high, typically in the Global South, have less urban green space than the climate would predict. The results therefore suggest that human wellbeing does not only benefit directly from increasing human development and decreasing population densities in urban areas, but that these effects may be compounded by also improving nature’s contribution to people.