Global monitoring of drivers of animal disease outbreaks to inform local risks of disease introduction

Abstract

Purpose: Tools are needed by decision-makers to enhance understanding of global disease transmission dynamics and facilitate timely risk analyses. Additionally, there is a need to include situational awareness of the presence of potential drivers of disease emergence and transmission when making early projections on transboundary risks of animal disease outbreak spread. We conducted a pilot study of an approach to bring diverse data on social and environmental drivers of animal disease emergence and spread together with data on animal populations and outbreaks. Information is presented geographically to visually communicate potential risks of disease emergence and potential spread. Methods & Materials: Our use cases for this approach were lumpy skin disease and avian influenza. Variables collected daily from systematic searches of global biosurveillance data on unexplained increases in animal morbidity and mortality, as well as confirmed findings of diseases in livestock and poultry populations are layered with social and environmental data layers, such as climate, flood and drought, and civil unrest. Using GIS coordinates for area centroids, a time-series geospatial presentation of outbreaks and findings is developed. Data is layered on estimated population density of susceptible livestock or poultry for an initial understanding of risk potential for direct transmission and movement of the disease agent geospatially. In addition, based on knowledge of the known drivers of each disease agent, additional data are included to reflect variables associated with animal disease emergence and transboundary spread. Results: Using this simple data visualization tool, the emergence and transboundary spread of lumpy skin disease and avian influenza viruses are visualized and used for situational awareness and analysis of the possible forecasted risks of local emergence of these diseases. Conclusion: Data gathered to monitor and estimate local risks of emerging animal diseases are analyzed using a readily updated data visualization tool and used to visually communicate potential risks of animal disease emergence and potential spread to risk analysts. Such a tool can assist decision-makers assess local risks of disease emergences based on global drivers of animal disease transmission, as reported by open sources.