Analysis of environmental factors influencing lumpy skin disease outbreak seasonality and assessment of its spread risk in the Saratovskaya oblast of Russia.

Abstract

Lumpy skin disease (LSD) is a transboundary viral disease of cattle that causes serious economic losses due to a significant decrease in meat and milk productivity. This study analyzed the influence of natural and anthropogenic environmental factors on LSD spread seasonality and assessed the risk of LSD outbreaks in the Saratovskaya oblast of the Russian Federation. Data on LSD outbreaks and environmental factors during different seasons were collected for the period 2011-2020 in the Balkan Peninsula, Middle East, and Russia. Risk assessment was performed using mathematical modeling with generalized linear regression and maximum entropy. Fourteen statistically significant environmental factors influencing LSD spread were identified. The analysis of MaxEnt models built using the selected factors showed that the presence of the pathogen is mostly exerted by: the density of susceptible cattle (an increased risk is observed at a density above 10 and 20 heads/10 km2 in winter and autumn, with a permanent risk in spring and summer), the density of water bodies (the risk is increased at any density in winter and autumn, in the range of 13-23.5 m2/km2 in spring, in the ranges of 0-8 and over 14.5 m2/km2 in summer), and average monthly precipitation rate (the most risky are 105-185 mm/month in winter, 35 mm in spring, 15-105 mm in summer, and above 50 mm in autumn). LSD tends to spread during the warm season. Compared with other test zones, the Saratovskaya oblast has a negligible risk of disease spread (in winter), low risk (in spring), or medium risk (in summer and autumn). The annual risk is low to medium.