Abstract
We have explored the long-term global evolution of energy production and consumption, in conjunction with a program to investigate the global carbon dioxide issue. This paper presents energy findings which have grown out of that work. While our initial motivation to look at energy was environmental, that look has revealed many energy surprises such as a stable world oil price to the year 2000, which delays the introduction of backstop technologies until the next century, a major shift toward shale oil and coal to produce liquid fuels after 2025, and a heavy substitution of conservation and small-scale solar energy for commercial fuels, but only a minor penetration of centralized solar electric power generation. The base case is a conditional projection. We also consider some of the major factors which could result in alternative evolutionary paths of the global energy system.
Published Version
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