Global debris flow susceptibility based on a comparative analysis of a single global model versus a continent-by-continent approach

Abstract

Debris flows, and landslides in general, are worldwide catastrophic phenomena. As world population and urbanization grow in magnitude and geographic coverage, the need exists to extend focus, research, and modeling to a continental and global scale. Although debris flow behavior and parameters are local phenomena, sound generalizations can be applied to debris flow susceptibility analyses at larger geographic extents based on these criteria. The focus of this research is to develop a global debris flow susceptibility map by modeling at both a continental scale for all continents and by a single global model and determine whether a global model adequately represents each continent. Probability Density, Conditional Probability, Certainty Factor, Frequency Ratio, and Maximum Entropy statistical models were developed and evaluated for best model performance using fourteen environmental factors generally accepted as the most appropriate debris flow predisposing factors. Global models and models for each continent were then developed and evaluated against verification data. The comparative analysis demonstrates that a single global model performs comparably or better than individual continental models for a majority of the continents, resulting in a debris flow susceptibility map of the world useful for in-depth research, international planning, and future debris flow susceptibility modeling and determining societal impacts.