Global analysis of geological CO2 storage by pressure-limited injection sites

Abstract

Limiting global warming to a 2 °C rise may require large-scale deployment of carbon capture and storage (CCS). Due to the key role CCS plays in integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation, it is important that fundamental physical constraints are accounted for. We produce a global estimate of CO2 storage resource that accounts for pressure-limits within basin-scale reservoir systems. We use a dynamic physics model of reservoir pressurisation that is sufficiently simple to be incorporated into energy systems models. Our estimates address regionally inconsistent methodologies and the general lack of consideration for pressure limitations in global storage resource estimates. We estimate a maximum pressure-limited resource base and explore scenarios with different injection patterns, and scenarios where the extent of CCS deployment is limited by the history of regional hydrocarbon exploration and the readiness of countries for deployment. The maximum pressure-limited global storage achievable after thirty years of injection is 3640GtCO2 (121GtCO2yr-1), increasing to 5630GtCO2 (70 GtCO2yr-1) at the end of the century. These represent an update to volumetric-based estimates that suggest in excess of 10,000Gt of storage resource available. When CCS deployment is limited to the top ten countries ranked by the GCCSI Storage Readiness Index, our maximum storage estimate decreases to 780GtCO2 (26GtCO2yr-1) at the mid-century and 1177GtCO2 (15GtCO2yr-1) at the end of the century. These latter results fall within the range of projected deployment by the IPCC and IEA and suggest that reservoir pressurisation will limit CCS deployment if development does not rapidly expand beyond the current implementation.