Göller Bölgesi İklim Verilerinin Matematiksel Modellenmesi

Abstract

This study aims to create a mathematical model for the cities of the Lakes region (Afyon, Antalya, Burdur, Isparta, Konya) of Turkey, for 2009-2018 period, by considering maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, pressure. For this purpose, a mathematical model was created using Gauss, sum of sinuses and Fourier models, which are preferred in curve fitting. Two different methods were used to form the model. The first method is the estimation and measurement method and the second one is the arithmetic mean method. Considering the two methods used, square root mean error and determination coefficient values were taken into consideration and the appropriate method was determined. The empirical model which gives the best results is accepted as the mathematical model of the desired parameters for the Lakes Region. As a mathematical model, respectively; The sum of sines model for average, maximum and minimum temperature, Gauss model for relative humidity and Fourier model for actual pressure. When the number of terms of the models was increased, the coefficient of determination improved, while a high increase in the square root mean error was observed. Therefore, high accuracy estimates were made by choosing 3-term models. Climate parameters and data are needed during the design and calculation phase of systems with respect to variable climate parameters such as solar cells, solar collectors, greenhouses, heating, cooling and ventilation systems. it was also concluded that models having more local, human and environmental factors should be developed in order to make accurate long term forecasts.