Glacier changes on the Nanga Parbat 1856–2020: A multi-source retrospective analysis

Abstract

Contemporary changes in the Himalayan cryosphere are an important concern in the global climate change debate. In this context, the glaciers of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) deserve special attention because of their importance for freshwater supply in the mountain valleys and the adjoining lowlands. However, detailed long-term glacier monitoring studies are rare due to the lack of historical data with adequate spatial and temporal resolution. In the case of Nanga Parbat, the ample availability of historical maps and terrestrial photographs together with satellite imagery and digital elevation models make it possible to analyse and quantify glacier changes for the period between 1856 and 2020. Using diverse multi-temporal datasets, this study reveals slight changes in ice-covered area for 63 glaciers, which decreased by 7% between 1934 and 2019. A detailed analysis of five glaciers in the Rupal Valley over the period 1856–2020 identifies diverse response patterns and highlights the importance of ice and snow avalanches, surge-type instabilities and site-specific topographic particularities for individual glacier changes. The results show high similarity with the stable glacier mass in the Karakoram. This study demonstrates the advantages of combining multiple sources and types of data in order to achieve consilience and offer robust insights.