GIS based JEPX spot prices forecasting system using solar power generation focusing on lowest prices

Abstract

In recent years, the proportion of solar power generation in Japan's power generation facilities has been increasing. The amount of solar power generation affects the JEPX (Japan Electric Power Exchange) spot prices. When the amount of solar power generation is excessive during the low demand period, the lowest prices sometimes appear in the spot market. On the other hand the existing forecasting method cannot forecast the lowest prices; hence the forecasting error of the existing method is large. In this study, the authors focused on the appearance of the lowest prices and analyzed the conditions under which the lowest prices are likely to appear. As a result, the authors identified the conditions where the lowest price is likely to appear by comparing with the season and past forecasted solar power generation. Then, the JEPX spot prices forecasting system was developed considering the appearance of the lowest prices. The system combined these conditions, and the authors developed the JEPX spot prices forecasting system. This system can accurately forecast the appearance of the lowest prices and spot prices.