Abstract
This book represents an effort thru mainframe computer simulations to predict the nation's future energy needs beyond the year 2000. The study concludes clearly that: future energy supplies will not be as plentiful as is currently believed. For example, it appears that by 2005 at the latest, and perhaps as early as 1995, on average it will take more energy to explore for new U.S. oil and gas than the wells will produce. Naturally one will continue to pump old oil fields after 2005 - but not long after; U.S. oil will be virtually exhausted by 2020; neither the supply of alternative fuels nor the nation's energy efficiency can be increased quickly enough to completely offset the effect of declining supplies of oil and gas, which now account for almost 70 percent of U.S. fuel use; A long-term downturn in U.S. gross national product is likely soon, probably starting in the 1990s; and because U.S. agriculture is heavily oil-dependent, it is vulnerable - so vulnerable that we could lose our ability to be a net exporter of food within the next twenty to thirty-five years, unless agricultural energy efficiency is raised dramatically.
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