Alternate Paths to Oil and Gas Supply from Domestic Sources

Abstract

This paper was prepared for the 47th Annual Fall Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, to be held in San, Antonio, Tex., Oct. 8–11, 1972 Permission to copy is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words. Illustrations may not be copied. The abstract should contain conspicuous acknowledgment of where and by whom the paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon requested to the Editor of the appropriate journal, provided agreement to give proper credit is made. provided agreement to give proper credit is made. Discussion of this paper is invited. Three copies of any discussion should be sent to the Society of Petroleum Engineers Office. Such discussions may be presented at the above meeting and, with the paper, may be considered for publication in one of the two SPE magazines. Abstract The energy supply pattern projected in the National Petroleum Council's Initial Appraisal has been widely accepted as a forecast of the future even though not so intended and even though it does not appear to be a highly probable case. Other policy and supply options exist, including the option of placing greater reliance on North American sources of supply and relying on market prices and perhaps expanded research and development to bring forth the necessary supply. Some of the alternatives to the Initial Appraisal supply pattern may be more cost efficient from a national standpoint. The prevailing view of the nation's future energy supply appears to be essentially that presented in the National Petroleum Council (NPC) Initial appraisal Petroleum Council (NPC) Initial appraisal of the U. S. Energy Outlook. (1) It is unfortunately that this initial appraisal has been widely accepted as representing the future course of events. The report's projections do not appear to be inevitable projections do not appear to be inevitable or even highly probable. The somewhat uncritical acceptance of the Initial Appraisal projections as a forecast of the future by some members of the industry and others tends to obscure the possibility that the nation may have real choices in the matter of energy supply within the period to 1985 as well as beyond. Moreover, period to 1985 as well as beyond. Moreover, some of the choices may be more cost efficient from the nation's viewpoint than the alternative represented by the Initial Appraisal projections. The NPC report itself recognizes that the price, cost, and other economic assumptions on which its projections are based are only a "status quo" reference set and not maximum likelihood estimates of future economic parameters.