Germany’s Triangular Relations with the United States and China in the Era of the Zeitenwende

Abstract

ABSTRACT Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has prompted a historic turning point (Zeitenwende) in Germany. This Zeitenwende has included a caesura in Berlin’s dealings with Moscow. But what about the ripple effects on Germany’s relations with its crucial security guarantor, the United States, and its most important trading partner, China? This article investigates Germany’s triangular relations with the US and China respectively in light of the ‘Russia factor’. It does so through the theoretical lens of the so-called Strategic Triangle Approach (STA) and the notion of ‘dual triangles’. The analysis reveals that Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has triggered an amplification of previously existing trends, in that German–US ties have been further strengthened whereas the German–Chinese relationship has become fraught with additional tensions. This has led to a state of affairs whereby Germany’s long-held rationale of staying on friendly terms with both superpowers is now being put to the test like never before since the turn of the millennium. Even more importantly, however, an STA-grounded assessment of Germany’s current situation also demonstrates that even – or especially – in the era of Zeitenwende, the country may be well-advised to maintain an overall cooperative course vis-à-vis China – if indeed that is possible.