On the Association of Attitudes Towards NATO and Weapon Deliveries for Ukraine with Vote Intentions in Germany

Abstract

ABSTRACT Studies have shown that foreign policy events can sway voting intentions. While initial analyses have explored Germany’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its foreign policy implications, public perspectives on this matter remain relatively unexplored, despite visible consequences like soaring energy and food prices, and concerns about escalating the war. To address this gap, the article delves into how Germans’ attitudes towards NATO’s role in the Russian invasion and the supply of weapons to Ukraine impact their voting intentions. Drawing on GLES data, our research reveals that rejecting further weapons deliveries significantly increases support for the radical-right AfD. Conversely, endorsement of such deliveries sees increased support for the Greens, FDP, and CDU/CSU. No significant effects are observed for the SPD and the Left Party. Notably, attitudes towards NATO and weapons play a role in the likelihood of supporting a new party associated with former Left Party politician, Sahra Wagenknecht. Crucially, these effects persist even when considering socio-demographic and ideological factors, underscoring the pivotal role of these issues in shaping party competition.