Geostatistical models with the use of hyperspectral data and seasonal variation – A new approach for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants

Katarzyna Bzdęga,Adrian Zarychta,Alina Urbisz,Sylwia Szporak-Wasilewska,Michał Ludynia,Barbara Fojcik,Barbara Tokarska-Guzik

doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107204

Katarzyna Bzdęga, Adrian Zarychta + Show 5 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107204

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Abstract

The general trend of ongoing plant invasion and the increasing number of species that may become invasive in the future, force seeking solutions that can improve the efficiency and economy of their management. Thus, we applied a novel approach combining the use of geostatistical interpolators such as ordinary kriging (OK) and co-kriging (CK) with environmental and hyperspectral data to evaluate the potential threat associated with the distribution of invasive plant species and to predict their probabilities of occurrence above the selected threshold of 10%. The specific spatial patterns of the probability of occurrence of Heracleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia spp. were modelled in two study areas in southern Poland. The significant achievement of this study was the application of geostatistical tools producing results characterized by a degree of precision quantified by cross-validation errors, and prediction errors after field verification. OK and CK returned root mean squared error (RMSE) values in a range from 0.21 to 0.51 and 0.21 to 0.47, respectively. For OK and CK, the prediction errors resulting from field verification in the following year were between 0.03–0.39, and 0.03–0.29, respectively. Additionally, the study provided the first prediction maps (2D) and Digital Prediction Models (DPMs) (3D) visualizations of the probability of occurrence of both invasive plants. Although the proposed approach is illustrated with real case studies related to Heracleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia spp., it could be extended to other species. This demonstrates the potential of an effective alternative strategy for evaluating the risk posed by invasive plants, that will be able to provide fast, low cost and effective prediction and monitoring of their spread. For institutions dealing with invasive plants, this may be beneficial and help to reduce the negative consequences of their improper management.

Highlights

The classical approach to research on the occurrence of invasive plant species requires both field and off-site studies
Our research showed that the percentage coverage of Heracleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia species changed during both growing seasons (Figs. 3a-c and 4a-c)
The combination of geostatistical tools with environmental and hyperspectral data makes it possible to predict the distribution of Her acleum sosnowskyi and Fallopia species, which are recognized worldwide as some the most troublesome alien invasive plant species

Summary

Introduction

The classical approach to research on the occurrence of invasive plant species requires both field and off-site studies. These are methods and techniques well known for controlling the spread of invasive species (cartographic studies of distribution ranges, monitoring, management and other methods to control these species) (Tokarska-Guzik, 2005 and the literature cited therein). Modern methodological and technical facilities are often used to refine and automate the whole research. These may enable a more detailed analysis of ranges of inva sive species occurrence and the dynamic of invasiveness, as well as preparation of more effective activities aiming to combat them. For pre dicting the potential distribution of invasive taxa in their invaded range, ecological or climatic niche modelling is used (Broennimann and Gui san, 2008; Fernandez and Hamilton, 2015; Ramírez-Albores et al, 2016; Jovanovic et al, 2018)

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