Geospatial characteristics of Colorado wildfire occurrences from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

Forest fires are a major environmental concern and can pose a direct threat to the environment, communities, and people living in fire-prone areas. Colorado has experienced an increase in wildfire frequency and severity in recent years and with the population increasing and communities expanding, it is imperative to understand the spatial patterns of wildfires and which areas are most at risk. Here we use geostatistical techniques to analyze the spatial distribution and seasonal patterns of fires in Colorado from 2001 to 2020 and assess fire risk for June 2021. Over the past 20 years, forest fires in Colorado have varied seasonally in concentration and dispersion, moving in a circular pattern from the southeast in the winter to the northwest in the summer. On an annual scale, the observed active fires varied latitudinally in recent years, with greater northward expansion. Several active fire hotspots were revealed in Colorado: two hotspots in the northwest towards Grand Junction and a large hotspot in the central north, of great concern for its expansion into the Rocky Mountain National Park and its location near more populated areas. Our fire risk model (which included topography, vegetation, drought intensity, and historical fire occurrences) showed that fire risk was greater along the western border of Colorado, and 45% of active fires occurred within the top two fire risk classes (100% occurred in the top three). Therefore, this fire risk map is a suitable tool to identify and locate areas that are at greater risk for fire occurrence in Colorado.