Geopolitical shifts, great power relations and Norway’s foreign policy

Abstract

This article examines how geopolitical shifts and the potential emergence of either a bipolar or multipolar system will affect the transatlantic relationship and a small state on the margins of power centres. A more Asia-centred world and a new polarity could drive a wedge into the transatlantic relationship. It is therefore explored how the US and the EU can develop hedging and risk management strategies that are complementary and take into account diverging capabilities, political structures, different threat perceptions of China and the effects of a potential new polarity. It is also noted that Norway will need a sophisticated foreign policy if it wants to approach the EU’s position related to China, while simultaneously sustaining close relations with a US that is becoming more preoccupied with China and continues to shift more of its resources towards Asia. A hedging strategy can guide Norwegian policy-makers to meet such challenges.