Abstract
The basic principles of geological risk calculation through probability of success (PoS) are mostly applied to numerical estimation of additional hydrocarbon existence in proven reservoirs or potential hydrocarbon discoveries in selected geological regional subsurface volumes. It can be adapted and validated for a comprehensive input dataset collected in the selected petroleum province, by dividing up geological events into several probability categories and classes. Such methodology has been widely developed in the last decades in the Croatian subsurface—mostly in the Croatian Pannonian Basin System (CPBS). Through the adaptation of geological categories, it was also applied in hybrid, i.e., stochastic, models developed in the CPBS (Drava Depression), mostly for inclusion of porosity values. As the robustness of this methodology is very high, it was also modified to estimate the influence of water-flooding in increasing oil recovery in some proven Neogene sandstone reservoirs in the CPBS (Sava Depression). This new modification is presented to be applied to geological risk calculation, intending to assess the safety of geological environment storage in deep wells, where spent nuclear fuel (SPN) would be disposed, a subject of great importance. The conceptual study encompassed the magmatic and metamorphic rocks in the pre-Neogene basement of the CPBS, intended to be used for such purpose. Regionally distributed lithologies are considered for nuclear waste disposal purpose, in order to detect the safest ones, considering petrophysical values, water saturation, recent weathering and tectonic activity.
Highlights
Probability of success (PoS) is a deterministic method by which deterministic estimation of independent categories within the hydrocarbon system are analyzed in potential or proven reservoirs or selected properties
Sedimentary carbonate rocks found in the pre-Neogene basement of the Croatian Pannonian Basin System (CPBS) are mainly Middle and Upper Triassic marine limestones and dolomites, which are well described at the outcrops in Medvednica mountains [18,19,20,21], as well as in the neighboring Samoborska Gora and Žumberak [20,21,22,23]
This study presents a modified probability of success (PoS), intending to assess the safety of geological environment in deep wells, where depleted radioactive fuel could be disposed in the pre-Neogene basement of the CPBS
Summary
Probability of success (PoS) is a deterministic method by which deterministic estimation of independent categories within the hydrocarbon system are analyzed in potential or proven reservoirs or selected properties. PoS less than 1.0 is not suitable for nuclear waste disposal except if some risk for the selected variable in the long period (e.g., scale of 106 years) would be legally considered and allowed It could be done for example in case of radionuclides with shorter half-life cycle, or regional probabilities for variable active on long geological scale (e.g., fault activity in the last 1 or more Ma). The methodology for determining geological probability was applied in calculating the persistence of the remaining economic quantities of hydrocarbons in the western part of the Sava Depression by Ivšinović [8]. This part of the Sava Depression is a relatively well-explored area with a large number of wells and discovered hydrocarbon reserves. Those two Slovakian studies clearly show that national nuclear energy policy and supporting experimental projects are of extreme importance for safely disposal and public response to nuclear energy in general
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