Geologic Hazard Forecasting Model Application in a HPP Based on Prototype Monitoring

Abstract

Based on geological hazard monitoring data at dam site of a HPP, slope and debris flow forecasting models of short term are studied practically. An advanced gray model is proposed for dangerous rock mass sloping disaster and tested with displacement monitoring data at high slope. A critical rainfall model and a storm intensity index are used to evaluate risk of single debris flow at dam site. The hazard forecasting conclusion might be generated by means of comprehensive analysis with the models and key monitoring indexes, so as to promote reliability and timeliness of the forecasting results.