Comprehensive Evaluation Model of Debris Flow Risk in Hydropower Projects

Abstract

Debris flow risk in hydropower project is influenced by many factors such as own characteristics of debris flow, the scale and importance of hydropower project. It is a multi-index comprehensive evaluation problem for debris flow risk. According to the features on debris flow risk in hydropower project, the case-based reasoning method and fuzzy optimal recognition method are adopted to build the evaluation model for debris flow risk. Firstly, an evaluation index system of debris flow risk, which can describe the multiple influence factors on debris flow risk in hydropower project, is proposed. Based on the historical debris flow data, a typical debris flow base is established. Secondly, considering the uncertainty of debris flow in hydropower project, two evaluation models of debris flow risk, namely case-based reasoning model and fuzzy optimal recognition model, are established. Lastly, the two models are used to analyze and evaluate the debris flow risk in one actual hydropower project. The capabilities of two models are compared. It is indicated that the proposed models are suitable to be used to implement the comprehensive evaluation of debris flow risk in hydropower projects.