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Abstract
In history, every occurrence of a desert locust plague has brought a devastating blow to local agriculture. Analyses of the potential geographic distribution and migration paths of desert locusts can be used to better monitor and provide early warnings about desert locust outbreaks. By using environmental data from multiple remote-sensing data sources, we simulate the potential habitats of desert locusts in Africa, Asia and Europe in this study using a logistic regression model that was developed based on desert locust monitoring records. The logistic regression model showed high accuracy, with an average training area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.84 and a kappa coefficient of 0.75. Our analysis indicated that the temperature and leaf area index (LAI) play important roles in shaping the spatial distribution of desert locusts. A model analysis based on data for six environmental variables over the past 15 years predicted that the potential habitats of desert locust present a periodic movement pattern between 40°N and 30°S latitude. The area of the potential desert locust habitat reached a maximum in July, with a suitable area exceeding 2.77 × 107 km2 and located entirely between 0°N and 40°N in Asia-Europe and Africa. In December, the potential distribution of desert locusts reached its minimum area at 0.68 × 107 km2 and was located between 30°N and 30°S in Asia and Africa. According to the model estimates, desert locust-prone areas are distributed in northern Ethiopia, South Sudan, northwestern Kenya, the southern Arabian Peninsula, the border area between India and Pakistan, and the southern Indian Peninsula. In addition, desert locusts were predicted to migrate from east to west between these areas and in Africa between 10°N and 17°N. Countries in these areas should closely monitor desert locust populations and respond rapidly.
Highlights
Desert locusts have posed a major threat to agricultural activities since ancient times [1]
The modelling accuracy depends on the factors like spatial resolution, size of the study area, methods and quality of input datasets [37], our study overall shows an acceptable model performance based on these two statistics
The results showed that LST (27.02%) and leaf area index (LAI) (25.63%) were the main contributors to the potential desert locust distribution
Summary
Desert locusts have posed a major threat to agricultural activities since ancient times [1]. 300 species out of the more than 10,000 known desert locusts in more than 100 countries can cause serious damage to agriculture, forestry and animal husbandry activities. There are approximately 60 countries with very high vulnerability to the desert locust [2]. Migrate very quickly, consume enormous amounts of plant matter, and cause destruction in agricultural areas. They are a serious threat to food security in some countries in Africa and Asia and can even cause socioeconomic problems [3]
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