Current methods of desert locust forecasting at FAO 1

Abstract

Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) have been feared by farmers in Africa, the Near East and South‐West Asia since antiquity. Given favourable environmental conditions, locusts can rapidly breed and form highly mobile swarms which may threaten agriculture in about 60 countries covering more than 20% of the total land surface of the earth. During this century, there have been eight major plagues, the last being in 1986/1989. Periods of recession broken by the occasional relatively minor outbreak of locusts occur in between plagues. For example, there has been an outbreak of locusts in Africa since 1992 which has not reached the proportions of a true plague. FAO operates a Desert Locust Information Service to provide early warning to affected countries of potential locust invasions and advice to the international donor community. Within this service, the locust situation and environmental conditions in affected countries are monitored on a daily basis using reports from national locust survey teams, remote‐sensing imagery and meteorological data. Short and medium‐term forecasts are prepared indicating potential locust migrations and areas of breeding. These forecasts form the basis of action plans in affected countries. This paper presents a brief introduction to desert locust biology, behaviour and population dynamics and a general overview of desert locust forecasting at FAO.