Geodetic Evidence for Cascading Landslide Motion Triggered by Extreme Rain Events at Joshimath, NW Himalaya

Abstract

AbstractSlope instability due to tectonic, hydrological and anthropogenic activities cause severe landslides in Himalaya. Joshimath, a densely populated Himalayan town witnessed a catastrophic landslide event during December 2022 and January 2023 causing damages to ∼700 buildings. We use Interferometric synthetic aperture radar, Global Positioning System and rainfall measurements to probe the kinematics of the Joshimath landslide. We separate the seasonal and episodic deformation components using singular spectrum analysis. While the low amplitude annual landslide motions are modulated by seasonal precipitation, acceleration phases are triggered by extreme rain events. Our analysis revealed episodes of cascading motions triggered by extreme rain events resulting an overall increase in landslide velocity from −22 mm/yr during 2004–2010 to −325 mm/yr during 2022–2023. We estimate the landslide depth (∼30 m) and hydraulic diffusivity (∼3 × 10−5 m2/s) using a 1‐D pore‐water pressure diffusion model. Our study reveals the importance of systematic monitoring of ground deformation and weather parameters for landslide hazard mitigation.