Abstract
Parametrising the spatially distributed dynamic catchment water balance is a critical factor in studying the hydrological system responses to climate and land use changes. This study presents the development of a geographic information system (GIS)-based set of algorithms (geographical spatially distributed water balance model (GEO-CWB)), which is developed from integrating physical, statistical, and machine learning models. The GEO-CWB tool has been developed to simulate and predict future spatially distributed dynamic water balance using GIS environment at the catchment scale in response to the future changes in climate variables and land use through a user-friendly interface. The tool helps in bridging the gap in quantifying the high-resolution dynamic water balance components for the large catchments by reducing the computational costs. Also, this paper presents the application and validation of GEO-CWB on the Shannon catchment in Ireland as an example of a large and complicated hydrological system. It can be concluded that climate and land use changes have significant effects on the spatial and temporal patterns of the different water balance components of the catchment.
Highlights
The effectiveness of water resources management and policies needs to consider the dynamic nature of any catchment’s water balance in order to develop innovative strategies for the future
The river flow data was collected by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), OPW, and Electricity Supply Board (ESB) data which are available as daily values covering the period from 1972 to 2014
The simulated annual subsurface water component values vary through the climate change scenarios between 1% to 9% positive increasing changes from the baseline, this was because the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) models are predicting higher rainfall quantities which offset the ET, see Figure 7
Summary
The effectiveness of water resources management and policies needs to consider the dynamic nature of any catchment’s water balance in order to develop innovative strategies for the future. Future management planning scenarios and policies for a specific catchment should integrate a dynamic water balance with future changes in climate variables and land use in a spatially distributed form. This integration allows decision makers and water resources modellers to predict climate change impacts and land use effects with more confidence in simulations for future scenarios or plans. A spatially distributed dynamic water balance across a catchment is defined as the mathematical simulation to track the changes in water budget spatially and temporally [1,2,3]. Spatial and temporal variability can be significant factors in many catchments
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