Genomic and spatial analysis reveal the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis in areas with high incidence of Zhejiang, China: A prospective cohort study

Abstract

In the mountainous, rural regions of eastern China, tuberculosis (TB) remains a formidable challenge; however, the long-term molecular epidemiological surveillance in these regions is limited. This study aimed to investigate molecular and spatial epidemiology of TB in two mountainous, rural counties of Zhejiang Province, China, from 2015 to 2021, to elucidate the recent transmission and drug-resistance profiles. The predominant Lineage 2 (L2) Beijing family accounted for 80.1% of total 532 sequenced Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) strains, showing consistent prevalence over seven years. Gene mutations associated with drug resistance were identified in 19.4% (103/532) of strains, including 47 rifampicin or isoniazid-resistant strains, eight multi-drug-resistant (MDR) strains, and five pre-extensively drug-resistant (pre-XDR) strains. Genomic clustering revealed 53 distinct clusters with an overall transmission clustering rate of 23.9% (127/532). Patients with a history of retreatment and those infected with L2 strains had a higher risk of recent transmission. Spatial and epidemiological analysis unveiled significant transmission hotspots, especially in densely populated urban areas, involving various public places such as medical institutions, farmlands, markets, and cardrooms. The study emphasizes the pivotal role of Beijing strains and urban-based TB transmission in the western mountainous regions in Zhejiang, highlighting the urgent requirement for specific interventions to mitigate the impact of TB in these unique communities.