Abstract
Efficient and sustainable agriculture depends on a high degree of predictability. Both in the short-term, for growers and agronomists to make informed management decisions for the immediate upcoming seasons, but also in the long term to establish future agricultural policy and trade agreements, to define crop and livestock breeding goals, and to stimulate innovation in new products with transparent regulatory frameworks for pesticides and biotechnology; all of which require decade-long timeframes or longer. However, there are many factors with implications for world agriculture that are becoming increasingly unpredictable and which pose significant challenges for sustainable future food production. I will highlight two major areas of uncertainty, one which is environmental and beyond the control of humankind in the medium-term and the other, involving regulatory policy that is absolutely with in our short-term grasp. I will argue that providing certainty and transparency in the latter will make a significant contribution to global food security by ameliorating the effects of the former.
Highlights
If the World Meteorological Organization predictions for 2016 are correct, the last three years will have each broken records for high global mean temperatures (WMO 2016) and 16
The 2007/8 and 2011/12 price spikes in commodity grains were directly related to prolonged extreme weather (Global Food Security 2016) and were a contributing factor in the social unrest seen in Egypt and elsewhere in 2008 (The Telegraph 2008)
The Oceanic Niño Index, shows the 2015/16 El Niño was one of the strongest ever recorded (Climate Prediction Centre 2016) leading to the FAO estimating that it affected more than 60 million people around the world (FAO 2016)
Summary
The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the OECD or of the governments of its Member countries. National Institutes of Bioscience Journal 2016, Vol 1 http://www.nibjournal.ed.ac.uk/
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