Abstract
Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s) climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security.
Highlights
Ecological niche modelling of the distributions of crop wild relatives in present, past and future climates can provide important insights into the past evolution and future trajectories of crop progenitors and domesticates [1]
Wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum), the progenitor of the agriculturally important domesticated H. vulgare ssp. vulgare [7], provides an excellent opportunity to explore the utility of ecological niche modelling for supporting conservation and use
We explore this issue by combining ecological niche modelling, based on the MaxEnt procedure [14], with a spatial analysis of SNP, nSSR and cpSSR data sets, using various geographic information systems [15,16,17]
Summary
Ecological niche modelling of the distributions of crop wild relatives in present, past and future climates can provide important insights into the past evolution and future trajectories of crop progenitors and domesticates [1]. Our intention in this study is to compare patterns of genetic variation in wild barley with the modelled distributions of the taxon under all three conditions of current, past and future climates, something which to our knowledge has not been undertaken before for any member of the genus Hordeum.
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