Abstract
Large infrastructure projects may significantly improve accessibility. Nevertheless, many such projects have toll schemes, and the total benefits may not be realised until the tolls have been removed. In response to toll removals, the traffic volumes on the corresponding infrastructure may change because of generated or induced traffic, the former being related to changes in travel patterns and the latter to new traffic. Predicting the consequences in advance can improve traffic forecasts and, thus, the assessment of infrastructure projects. Using the case of an island, this study analysed the traffic counts and a panel data survey of 132 respondents before and after toll removal. A mixed logit model was estimated to detect the role of the toll in users’ destination choice. The results showed that the toll did not affect destination choice significantly. Therefore, extra traffic may have resulted from route change, transportation mode change, or other potential structural changes. There were no clear indications of potential induced traffic, although this factor should be studied further.
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