Abstract
Wheat aphids are major wheat sap sucking pests found throughout the world. The analysis of wheat aphid population dynamics to develop aphid control strategies is therefore important. Even if all factors that control the size of aphid populations are known, several mathematical tools are needed to help us understand their combined effect. Based on the knowledge of population ecology and catastrophe theory, we proposed a generalized population dynamics model to describe variation of wheat aphid populations and obtained a dynamic threshold function for aphid control. Field survey data from 1997 to 2002 were used to validate this model. The results indicated the model could predict the results of practical measures against a pest if the factors of their immediate effects are known or could be estimated. By explaining and forecasting the size of an aphid outbreak and its probability of occurrence, this catastrophe model can provide a scientific basis for wheat aphid control.
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