Development of a wheat aphid population dynamics model based on cusp catastrophe theory

Abstract

Aphids are a major global wheat pest that can cause considerable loss of yield. Modeling of aphid population dynamics is an integral part of management strategies to manage or control aphid populations. In this paper, first, a wheat aphid population dynamics model was developed based on a logistic model and the Holling III functional response, which includes three factors: temperature, natural enemies and insecticide. Second, this model fitted with a cusp catastrophe model to describe how abrupt changes in the wheat aphid population were influenced by these factors. Finally, the system was validated with field data from 2016 to 2018. The bifurcation set of the cusp catastrophe model was deemed to be the quantified dynamic control threshold, so an outbreak of aphid’s population can be explained according to the variation of control variables. In short, this aphid population model was successfully validated on survey data, which can be used to guide the prevention and control of aphids.