General equilibrium impacts on the U.S. economy of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply

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This study explores the short-run consequences of a disruption to Chinese cobalt supply, via an export restriction, under various electric vehicle deployment futures. Using 2017 as a benchmark, the cost then to the U.S. economy would have been small, and equivalent to less than 0.01% of U.S. personal consumption expenditures. If China were to supply all incremental new cobalt needed into 2030, the cost could be over 300 times larger than 2017. However, under baseline assumptions that account for the current pace of technology development and new cobalt production outside of China, model simulations indicate that over 90% of these costs could be avoided; surprisingly, it is possible for a Chinese supply disruption to be less costly to the U.S. in 2030 than 2017. A variety of scenarios are used to show the degree to which increased cobalt production, trade alliances, and ability to substitute away from cobalt in vehicles can help the U.S. reduce economic costs in the face of a Chinese supply disruption.