Abstract
Abstract. This paper describes GCAM v5.1, an open source model that represents the linkages between energy, water, land, climate, and economic systems. GCAM is a market equilibrium model, is global in scope, and operates from 1990 to 2100 in 5-year time steps. It can be used to examine, for example, how changes in population, income, or technology cost might alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals, or how changes in one region's demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions. This paper describes the model, including its assumptions, inputs, and outputs. We then use 11 scenarios, varying the socioeconomic and climate policy assumptions, to illustrate the results from the model. The resulting scenarios demonstrate a wide range of potential future energy, water, and land uses. We compare the results from GCAM v5.1 to historical data and to future scenario simulations from earlier versions of GCAM and from other models. Finally, we provide information on how to obtain the model.
Highlights
Researchers and decision makers are increasingly interested in understanding the many ways in which human and Earth systems interact with one another, at scales from local to regional to global (Palmer and Smith, 2014)
How might new emerging technologies such as photovoltaic cells or new batteries influence the way that energy is consumed and used, and what might this mean for greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, air pollution, international markets for fossil fuels, and access to energy? How might changes in population, income, or technology cost alter crop production, energy demand, or water withdrawals? How do changes in one region’s demand for energy affect energy, water, and land in other regions?
For non-US regions, gross domestic product (GDP) is available at either market exchange rates (MER) or purchasing power parity (PPP)
Summary
Researchers and decision makers are increasingly interested in understanding the many ways in which human and Earth systems interact with one another, at scales from local (e.g., a city) to regional to global (Palmer and Smith, 2014). GCAM represents the behavior of and complex interactions between five major systems – energy, water, land, climate, and the economy – at global and regional scales. Calvin et al.: GCAM v5.1 ponents (e.g., the climate system) can be run individually This allows insights that are not possible in single sector or single system models. Users can examine the influence of changes in socioeconomics or policy on energy, water, and land in GCAM Several recent papers provide comparisons of GCAM to these models and many others, including discussions of model structure, input data, and results (Bauer et al, 2018; Popp et al, 2017; Rao et al, 2017). This paper provides a general overview of the model; more detailed documentation is available online at http://jgcri.github.io/gcam-doc (last access: 6 February 2019)
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