GC Insights: Communicating long-term changes in local climate risk using a physically plausible causal chain

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Abstract. Directly linking greenhouse gas emissions or global warming to experiences of local climatic changes is a potentially important communication tool. Using observations, we develop a physically plausible “causal chain” visualisation to demonstrate the connections between global carbon dioxide emissions and local climate events. We highlight how increased flood risk in one river basin in the UK could be discussed with people directly affected by recent floods.