Abstract
Northern Australian biomes hold high biodiversity values within largely intact vegetation complexes, yet many species of mammals, and some other taxa, are endangered. Recently, six mammal species were added to the 20 or so already listed in the Australian endangered category. Current predictions suggest that nine species of mammal in northern Australia are in imminent danger of extinction within 20 years. We examine the robustness of the assumptions of status and trends in light of the low levels of monitoring of species and ecosystems across northern Australia, including monitoring the effects of management actions. The causes of the declines include a warming climate, pest species, changed fire regimes, grazing by introduced herbivores, and diseases, and work to help species and ecosystems recover is being conducted across the region. Indigenous custodians who work on the land have the potential and capacity to provide a significant human resource to tackle the challenge of species recovery. By working with non-Indigenous researchers and conservation managers, and with adequate support and incentives, many improvements in species’ downward trajectories could be made. We propose a strategy to establish a network of monitoring sites based on a pragmatic approach by prioritizing particular bioregions. The policies that determine research and monitoring investment need to be re-set and new and modified approaches need to be implemented urgently. The funding needs to be returned to levels that are adequate for the task. At present resourcing levels, species are likely to become extinct through an avoidable attrition process.
Highlights
An avalanche of research shows that global faunal declines and extinctions have increased over recent decades [1,2,3] and none of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi biodiversity targets had been met by the end of the decade for biodiversity [4,5]
The mammals and birds that were previously considered to be at most risk [51,71], were analyzed further in order to forecast the extinction risk and it was found that of the 20 mammal species most likely to go extinct in the 20 years, almost half (9) occur in north Australia [47] (Table 2). (This account overlooked the spectacled flying-fox Pteropus conspicillatus [52,72], which takes the total in north Australia to 10)
A recent study using northern quolls sourced from Queensland and the Northern Territory (NT) to test outbreeding depression found, with reservations, that targeted gene flow could be used in some situations to help recover the species [93] but failed to address the maintenance of distinct genetic lineages wherein reintroducing species from one subspecies population to another could be contrary to conservation objectives (Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi targets)
Summary
An avalanche of research shows that global faunal declines and extinctions have increased over recent decades [1,2,3] and none of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi biodiversity targets had been met by the end of the decade for biodiversity [4,5]. Some research on species trends is being conducted under the National Environmental Science Program, but funding is relatively low (149 million AUD in 2021 over six years), considering that the program covers Australia These losses have resulted in a history of ad hoc, intermittent, and ephemeral survey and monitoring programs that have failed due to the lack of support by governments and scientists, the lack of interest from journals in publishing articles on monitoring, and the difficulties of undertaking research and monitoring [19]. Other studies of some 202 sites across the Cape York region produced low trap success, with the proportion of sites that recorded no mammals ranging from 0.5% to 47.5% [39] These figures are of concern as studies of Kakadu mammal fauna, which produced 55% mammal-empty sites, which was considered to be extremely poor and showed a significant downward trend from 13% mammal-empty sites 13 years previously (1996–2009), indicating a rapid and severe decline in the mammal fauna in that location [29]. Three are critically endangered (Austroblepharus barrylyoni; Bellatorias obiri; Lerista allanae), two endangered (Saltuarius eximius; Lerista ameles), one vulnerable (Orraya occultus), and one is considered by expert elicitation to be vulnerable (Lerista storri) [49], but most reptiles seem to be secure [50]
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