Abstract
In this paper, the interaction strategies and the evolutionary game analysis of the actions taken by the government and the public in the early days of the epidemic are incorporated into the natural transmission mechanism model of the epidemic, and then the transmission frequency equations of COVID-19 epidemic is established. According to the cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the UK and China, the upper limit of the spread of COVID-19 in different evolutionary scenarios is set. Using SPSS to perform logistic curve fitting, the frequency fitting equations of cumulative confirmed cases under different evolution scenarios are obtained respectively. The analysis result shows that the emergency response strategy adopted by the government in the early days of the epidemic can effectively control the spread of the epidemic. Combined with the transmission frequency equation of COVID-19 epidemic, measures taken by the government are analyzed. The influence of each measure on the frequency variable is judged and then the influence on the spread of the epidemic is obtained. Finally, based on the above analysis, the government is advised to adhere to the principles of scientific, initiative and flexibility when facing major epidemics.
Highlights
An outbreak of COVID-19 occurred in Wuhan, China in December 2019
This study fully considers the social economic problems and the natural transmission law involved in the epidemic, and establishes the transmission frequency equation of COVID-19 epidemic based on the evolutionary game theory and infectious disease diffusion model
Combined with the transmission frequency equation of COVID-19 epidemic and the government control and prevention measures, it can be found that the release of authoritative information, surveillance, epidemiological investigation of new cases, and the release of daily disease data can effectively reduce the speed of COVID-19 epidemic transmission
Summary
Similar acute infectious diseases such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), avian influenza, H1N1 influenza, etc. Had outbreak in many parts of the world due to their high infectivity. The outbreak of major epidemics are often influenced by both human and natural factors. Major infectious diseases spread rapidly and widely, and some viruses have the characteristics of strong climbing ability and human-to-human transmission. If the government and the public do not take measures to prevent and control the epidemic in time, very serious consequences for social economy and public health would happen. From the perspective of social and economic stability and the public’s safety, the government’ prevention and control measures and the public’s attitude of cooperation are significant to the control of the epidemic
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