Abstract
This paper presents a fuzzy based model for evaluation of reliability of unit commitment problem, incorporating uncertain outage replacement rate (O.R.R) and representation of load. Such a model is a resultant of fuzzy Markov model in combination with fuzzy based load model. Fuzzy Markov model employs fuzzy set concept along with probabilistic Markov model for computation of fuzzy failure state probability based on fuzzy mean time to failure (MTTF) values of different generators considered for unit commitment problem. The proposed model uses fuzzy failure state probability instead of conventional outage replacement rate (O.R.R) for evaluation of fuzzy reliability indices such as fuzzy loss of load probability (FLOLP), fuzzy loss of load expected (FLOLE), fuzzy loss of energy Probability (FLOEP), fuzzy expected energy not supplied (FEENS), fuzzy frequency (FF), and fuzzy duration (FD). The efficacy of the proposed model is validated using the case studies. The results show that fuzzy reliability indices provide with additional information compared to the crisp indices.
Published Version
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