Fuzzy logic-based modeling method for regional multi-ship collision risk assessment considering impacts of ship crossing angle and navigational environment

Abstract

The ship crossing angle and navigational environment have significant impact on the precisely modeling of regional ship collision risk, but the existed studies seldom consider this problem. In order to realize the perception of regional multi-ship collision risk, this paper proposes a fuzzy logic-based modelling method for regional multi-ship collision risk assessment considering impact of ship crossing angle and navigational environment. The method incorporates the impact factors of DCPA, TCPA, ship crossing angle and navigational environment in multi-ship encounter situation by using fuzzy logic theory. We use Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to obtain the risk weights of different ships versus single ships, and then obtain the value of multi-ship collision risk. In order to verify the validity of the model, data from the Taiwan Strait is used for verification, and the results show that this method can realize the early warning of regional multi-ship collision risk. The method can provide an important basis for maritime collision risk monitoring and ship navigation risk assessment for maritime administration departments and shore-based center of maritime autonomous ships.