Abstract
Abstract This paper studies, through the principles of fuzzy set theory, groundwater response to meteorological drought in the case of an aquifer system located in the plains at the southeast of Xanthi, NE Greece. Meteorological drought is expressed through standardized Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDISt) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which are calculated for various reference periods. These drought indices are considered as independent variables in multiple fuzzy linear regression based on Tanaka's model, while the observed water table regarding two areas is used as a dependent variable. The fuzzy linear regression of Tanaka is characterized by the inclusion constraints where all the observed data must be included in the produced fuzzy band. Hence, each fuzzy output can get an interval of values where a membership degree corresponds to each of them. A modification of the Tanaka model by adding constraints is proposed in order to avoid irrational behavior. The results show that there was a significant influence of the meteorological drought of the previous hydrological year, while geology plays an important role. Furthermore, the use of RDISt improves the results of fuzzy linear regressions in all cases. Two suitability measures and a measure of comparison between fuzzy numbers are used.
Highlights
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon caused by natural perturbations of precipitation and is associated with moisture deficits
This study proposes a multiple fuzzy linear regression based-methodology for relating RDISt and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values to the water table (WT) in order to assess the groundwater response during or after drought periods in the aquifer system of case study
After the estimation of RDISt and SPI, a drought period was indicated during the hydrological years from 1999–1900 to 2001–2002
Summary
Drought is a recurrent phenomenon caused by natural perturbations of precipitation and is associated with moisture deficits. Drought is characterized as a creeping phenomenon, since it affects slowly and accumulatively the systems. Compared to other natural disasters, drought has the most hazard characteristics for environmental and anthropogenic systems (Bryant 1991; Wilhite 2000; Mishra & Singh 2010). Scientists have identified the socioeconomic drought by taking into account its economic effects on human societies. Analysis of these types of drought is based mainly on the use of drought indices.
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