Fuzzy fault tree reliability analysis based on improved T-S model with application to NC turret

Abstract

In Takagi and Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA), the construction of T-S fuzzy gates relies too much on expert experience, which will result in inevitable subjective errors. In order to overcome this disadvantage, a new method was proposed in which the construction of T-S gates no longer relies solely on historical data and expert experience but is also determined by the importance of the basic events to the top event. In the proposed method, fault degrees were described as fuzzy numbers; fault probabilities were described as fuzzy possibilities. The importance index of basic events can be solved through the analysis of the fuzzy fault tree model by Monte Carlo (MC) simulation. The proposed method is suitable for systems where exact information on the fault probabilities of the components and the magnitude of failure and effect on the system are not available. The concept and calculation method of T-S probability importance was presented. Finally, the proposed method is applied to analyze the reliability of the NC turret seal subsystem, the accuracy of the method is verified by comparing with the methods based on traditional FFTA and T-S FFTA, and the weak points of the system are obtained by importance analysis, which will provide data for system fault diagnosis and preventive maintenance.