Abstract
The practical output of the paper is the prediction of the percentage of the short-term youth unemployment in the following two consecutive years. For this purpose, the non-traditional fuzzy model of the relevant prediction task is formulated in its theoretical-methodological part, which is subsequently applied in the application part. By means of the exact tools of the fuzzy approach (fuzzy sets and inference rules for manipulation with them), the synergy, uncertainty and complexity of the values (terms) of vaguely defined linguistic variables of an economic-psychological nature represented by sets of selected macroeconomic indicators is reflected. Despite the fact that the results of the fuzzy prediction are not significantly different from the results of conventional statistical prediction, the demonstration of the approach of the case of knowledgeable expertise to the choice of the relevant fuzzy sets and the formulation of the set of inference rules can be considered as a secondary benefit.
Highlights
Introduction to Youth UnemploymentIn the last decade youth unemployment has been in the center of attention of economists and politicians, in particular in the countries severely affected by the latest finantial cricis [1]
By means of the exact tools of the fuzzy approach, the synergy, uncertainty and complexity of the values of vaguely defined linguistic variables of an economic-psychological nature represented by sets of selected macroeconomic indicators is reflected
The purpose of this paper is to predict the youth unemployment rate expressed as a percentage further marked as YUNE (%), in two upcoming periods 2019 and 2021 in the Czech Republic on the basis of a historically known series of selected macroeconomic indicators of ∆IND, UNE, ΔGDP
Summary
In the last decade youth unemployment has been in the center of attention of economists and politicians, in particular in the countries severely affected by the latest finantial cricis [1]. The integration of young people into the labour market is an essential objective of the European Employment Strategy [3]. Futhermore, reduced mobility as a result of homeownership, perception of corruption, a high level of remittances and a lack of possibilities for young people to live outside parental homes appeared to be significant contributors as well
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