Abstract
This paper presents a scenario-based approach to strategic environmental assessment (SEA) for wetland trend analysis and land use and land cover (LUC) modeling in an urban environment. The application is focused on the Saskatoon urban environment, a rapidly growing urban municipality in Canada’s prairie pothole region. Alternative future LUC was simulated using remote sensing data and city spatial planning documentation using a Markov Chain technique. Two alternatives were developed and compared for LUC change and threats to urban wetland sustainability: a zero alternative that simulated trends in urban development and wetland conservation under a business as usual scenario, in the absence of prescribed planning and zoning actions; and an alternative focused on implementation of current urban development plans, which simulated future LUC to account for prescribed wetland conservation strategies. Results show no improvement in future wetland conditions under the city’s planned growth and wetland conservation scenario versus the business as usual scenario. Results also indicate that a blanket wetland conservation strategy for the city may not be sufficient to overcome the historic trend of urban wetland loss; and that spatially distributed conservation rates, based on individual wetland water catchment LUC peculiarities, may be more effective in terms of wetland conservation. The paper also demonstrates the challenges to applied SEA in a rapidly changing urban planning context, where data are often sparse and inconsistent across the urban region, and provides potential solutions through LUC classification and prediction tools to help overcome data limitations to support land use planning decisions for wetland conservation.
Highlights
The majority of wetland alteration is driven by, or associated with, changes to land use and land cover (LUC) resulting from human-induced surface disturbance [1]
Wetland area is a major indicator for wetland habitat evaluation, as it is reasonable to assume that the loss or degradation of wetland area negatively affects the ability of wetlands in a watershed to maintain their functions within a water catchment, including adequate flood control, water quality maintenance, and support efficient wildlife habitat [60,63]
The wet areas simulated for the zero alternative scenario considered the historical trend of wetland/urban change in the study area, while the simulation for the current development plan (CDP) alternative included the most recent development
Summary
The majority of wetland alteration is driven by, or associated with, changes to land use and land cover (LUC) resulting from human-induced surface disturbance [1]. Environmental Assessment (SEA), the assessment and integration of environmental and sustainability considerations in policy, plan, or program (PPP) development and decision making [5,6], has gained considerable momentum in recent years as a proactive and spatially appropriate framework for assessing and shaping land use policies, plans, and development actions [7,8], including urban and regional land use plans [9,10], and managing their impacts on wetlands [11]. SEA is about understanding the context of a PPP or strategy being developed and assessed, identifying and understanding key trends, and assessing future environmental and sustainable outcomes to help achieve strategic objectives [12]. Its application typically focuses on the identification and assessment of trends in environmental baselines, and the analysis of future outcomes or scenarios under different land use or disturbance conditions [13,14], identifying desired outcomes and what is required to achieve those outcomes [15]
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