Future urban expansion and local climate zone changes in relation to land surface temperature: Case of Bangkok Metropolitan Administration, Thailand

Abstract

This paper focuses on land use and land cover (LULC) expansion and local climate zone (LCZ) changes in relation to warming in the future, the study concentrates on three major parts. First, this research analyzes LULC and LCZ changes from 1991 to 2016 using Landsat satellite images data. This reveals the history of urban expansion over the study period, urban growth rate and urban land demand projection in the target year (2026). Second, the study determines LULC and LCZ changes in the future by using spatial logistic regression model. Third, the examination of urban expansion in relation to warming in the future was conducted. The result shows that the built-up area has more development and expansion to the northern, southern and western parts of Bangkok. The built-up surface temperature climbed and continued to increase between 1991 and 2016. The trend of temperature differences between the built-up areas and other areas, significantly widened in 2026. Most of green area on the western part of Bangkok was replaced by compact mid-rise, compact low-rise, and open low-rise building. The study means that the western part of the city will be warmer approximately 1 to 2 °C in the future.