Future Uncertain: Using Scenarios to Understand Turkey's Geopolitical Environment and its Impact on the Kurdish Question

Abstract

In October 2005 the authors organized a workshop in Sofia, Bulgaria, for prominent members of the Turkish academy and non-governmental organization community. Several scenarios detailing how the Kurdish question in Turkey might evolve over the next 10–15 years were discussed. This article draws on those discussions to present and analyse a series of scenarios on the Kurdish question in Turkey. A scenario analysis is used because the basic premise of this article is that the outcome of the four-way interaction between Turkey, the Kurds in Turkey, the European Union (EU) and northern Iraq remains fundamentally uncertain and, therefore, that describing a single future that will emerge is not possible. Instead, given this uncertainty, the key question to ask is what potential scenarios are awaiting Turkey and how and why these scenarios might emerge in response to moves by the state and developments within the EU, northern Iraq and the Kurdish community. Exploring such options can provide a more thorough and nuanced understanding of Turkey's place in the region and opportunities for the transformation of the Kurdish conflict.