Abstract
Long-term, system-level foresight is needed when grand challenges are addressed in the transport sector. This paper explores how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning. Techniques to integrate long-term foresight and understanding of socio-technical change in the transport system to support long-term transport policy targets are introduced. The proposed approach extends and combines transport system vision building to analysis of system-level changes on a three-level framework. It presents a novel, policy relevant application in the field of socio-technical transitions. The case is demonstrated with a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100. First, a consistent transport system vision was created with transport experts and authorities using a structured vision building process. Second, key topics involved in the transition from the existing socio-technical system to the envisioned future were analysed using the three-level framework. The demonstration proved successful, and it has contributed to the understanding of importance of the shared long-term perspective in transport system decision-making and strategic planning. It has also generated wider discussion on transport system visions, desired futures paths as well as measures and changes required among the Finnish transport systems stakeholders.
Highlights
Global warming, energy supply, urbanisation, global markets, scarcity of financial resources, security issues, aging population as well as digitalization of our environment are grand challenges, which we need to consider carefully as we make strategic plans for future transport systems
The first question on how socio-technical transitions can be anticipated and taken into account in strategic transport planning was addressed by an outlook on several theoretical approaches
To answer this research need, we presented a novel approach, the three-level framework for the transport system (Fig. 1), that together with long-term visioning wraps up the theoretical foundations to support the analysis of socio-technical transitions in the transport domain
Summary
Energy supply, urbanisation, global markets, scarcity of financial resources, security issues, aging population as well as digitalization of our environment are grand challenges, which we need to consider carefully as we make strategic plans for future transport systems. Potential measures and innovations to tackle the grand challenges are often systemic, resulting in system innovation or transition, in other words a shift from one socio-technical system to another Such co-evolution processes involve technological changes and changes in e.g. social, cultural, economic or legal dimensions. To explore how long-term foresight and transport system visions could be used in anticipating socio-technical changes and supporting strategic transport planning in practice, we use a research project aiming to structure a vision of a safe and secure Finnish transport system in 2100.
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