Future temperature-related years of life lost projections for cardiovascular disease in Tianjin, China

Abstract

It is widely accepted that temperatures is associated with cardiovascular mortality, however, few studies have explored the effects of temperature on years of life lost (YLL) from cardiovascular mortality in China under future global warming scenarios. Therefore, there is an urgent need to obtain projections of YLL from cardiovascular diseases. Here we applied nineteen global-scale climate models (GCMs) and three Representative Concentration Pathway emission scenarios (RCPs) in the 2050s and 2070s for temperature-related YLL projection in Tianjin, China. We found the relationships between daily maximum temperatures with YLL from cardiovascular mortality were basically U-shaped. We observed increasing net annual YLL across a range of multiple models under different climate scenarios, suggesting that increasing heat-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality could offset decreasing cold-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality. The largest temperature-related YLL from cardiovascular mortality were observed under the RCP8.5 scenario and increased more rapidly in the 2070s versus the 2050s. Monthly analyses of percent changes in YLL from cardiovascular mortality showed that the largest percent increases occurred from May to September. If warm adaptation occurs, only the adverse effects under RCP2.6 could be fully offset in both 2050 and 2070. Our exploration provided further evidence for the potential health impacts of global warming and highlighted that government should develop environmental policies for future health risks.