Abstract
Using a temporal-dynamic calibrated Ecosim food web model, we assess the effects of future changes on marine resources and ecosystem conditions of the Israeli Mediterranean continental shelf. This region has been intensely invaded by Indo-Pacific species. The region is exposed to extreme environmental conditions, is subjected to high rates of climate change and has experienced intense fishing pressure. We test the impacts of a new set of fishing regulations currently being implemented, a continued increase in sea temperatures following IPCC projections, and a continued increase in alien species biomass. We first investigate the impacts of the stressors separately, and then we combine them to evaluate their cumulative effects. Our results show overall potential future benefits of fishing effort reductions, and detrimental impacts of increasing sea temperature and increasing biomass of alien species. Cumulative scenarios suggest that the beneficial effects of fisheries reduction may be dampened by the impact of increasing sea temperature and alien species when acting together. These results illustrate the importance of including stressors other than fisheries, such as climate change and biological invasions, in an ecosystem-based management approach. These results support the need for reducing local and regional stressors, such as fishing and biological invasions, in order to promote resilience to sea warming.
Highlights
Marine ecosystems have been increasingly altered worldwide by a diversity of global, regional and local anthropogenic stressors
This study represents to our knowledge the first attempt to evaluate potential impacts of future conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in an ecosystem context combining different global change stressors
Alien groups will continue to increase in abundance, as many of these species have higher thermal tolerances. This general degradation of the system is captured by the decline of ecological indicators linked with ecosystem condition, such as Mean Trophic Level of the catch (mTLc), Mean Trophic Level of the community (mTLco) and FCI
Summary
Marine ecosystems have been increasingly altered worldwide by a diversity of global, regional and local anthropogenic stressors These stressors include climate change, biological invasions, overexploitation, pollution and habitat destruction and often co-occur in time and space and have cumulative effects[1,2]. Such ecosystem changes can have large consequences on species abundance and distributions, marine biodiversity, and ecosystem functioning and services[3,4,5]. Ecosystem models and ecological forecasts face several obstacles linked to ecosystem characteristics and include high uncertainty[15,16] They have the potential to contribute significantly to achieving goals in marine conservation and management by offering guidance to decision-makers[17]. Their use in assessments, policy support, and decision-making can provide insights into how the ecosystem could respond to plausible future stressors, enabling the development of adaptive management strategies, and allowing for exploration of the implications of alternative management options[13,18,19]
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