Future scenarios of land-use-cover effects on pollination supply and demand in São Paulo State, Brazil

Marcela De Matos Barbosa,Wladimir Moya,Manuela Franco De Carvalho Da Silva Pereira Pereira,Matheus Camargo Silva Mancini,Catalina Zuluaga Rodriguez,Liedson Tavares Carneiro,Laura Camila Perez Giraldo,Tássia Rayane Ferreira Chagas,Natalia Dantas Paes,Leonardo Lima Bergamini

doi:10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0906

Abstract

Abstract: Rapid land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) have led to habitat loss and fragmentation in the natural forest areas, which are mainly due to the intense and rapid expansion of urban areas and intense agricultural management. These processes are strongly threatening biodiversity maintenance and the ecosystem services provided by them. Among the ecosystem services under threat, pollination has been widely studied since this service is essential to promote food production and, therefore, human well-being. In a scenario of increasing LULCC it is crucial to understand the interplay between these changes, pollination demand by insect-dependent crops and pollinator availability to ensure these ecosystem services meet the increased demand for food production. In this study, we developed a conceptual model to disentangle the relationships between human-nature, especially LULCC, and its consequences, to the delivery of pollination service. We also presented a case study in the Brazilian São Paulo state, where we modeled the effects of predicted LULCC associated to agriculture expansion between the years 2012 and 2030 on pollinator demand by crops and pollinator supply, for fourteen economically important crops. Additionally, we systematized an expert-based Ecosystem Service matrix to estimate the influences of LULCC on the provision of pollination. Our results showed that by 2030, the demand for pollination will increase by 40% on average, while pollinator supply, estimated using suitability values for the different land-use/cover classes, will show, on average, a 3% decrease. Our results highlight the importance of considering the dialogue among stakeholders, governments, institutions, and scientists to find alternatives and strategies to promote pollinator-friendly practices and safeguard the provision of pollination services in a future under LULCC.

Highlights

Habitat loss and fragmentation are caused mainly by land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) resulting from the expansion of agricultural and urban areas demanded by human population growth and economic development (Kremen et al 2004, Foley et al 2005, Roberts 2011, Aizen et al 2019)
We presented a case study using the state of São Paulo as a model of large-scale landscape for which we projected a future scenario of pollination demand and supply and applied the general conceptual model
We adapted the IPBES conceptual framework to our case study focusing on the effects of LULCC and the estimated demand for pollination services (Figure 1)

Summary

Introduction

Habitat loss and fragmentation are caused mainly by land-use/land cover changes (LULCC) resulting from the expansion of agricultural and urban areas demanded by human population growth and economic development (Kremen et al 2004, Foley et al 2005, Roberts 2011, Aizen et al 2019). By LULCC we refer to human activities that alter land surface processes including biogeochemistry, hydrology and biodiversity and changes on the physical and biological cover over the surface of land (Mustard et al 2004, Ellis & Pontius 2007). These changes occur at alarming rates in the Tropics which harbors the highest terrestrial biodiversity (Gaston 2000). Since wild pollinators require specific resources for nesting, feeding and reproducing as well as certain habitat conditions to ensure their survival, intensive LULCC can negatively affect the density of pollinators at different scales (Fahrig et al 2011, Motzkea et al 2016, Senapathi et al 2017)

Methods

Results

Conclusion